What is the new listing-to-pending ratio and how should I use it in client conversations?
The new listing-to-pending ratio measures the balance between properties entering the market and those going under contract. A 1.0 reading means perfect equilibrium. Below 1.0, inventory builds and buyers gain leverage; above 1.0, absorption outpaces supply and sellers are in control. For example, this week’s reading started at 0.60, showing buyers have the edge. The ratio is recalculated as pendings are updated in MLS, so it usually finishes higher than the Monday reading, but the story is clear: Austin’s absorption has weakened. Use this metric to explain negotiation power, pricing strategy, and timing to both buyers and sellers in simple, concrete terms.
What did this week’s data (week of Sept 29, 2025) actually show?
As of Monday morning, Austin recorded 793 new listings, 378 active-under-contract, and 198 pendings, producing a ratio near 0.60. Only 96 homes increased price—less than half of the year’s average—while 95% of all pricing adjustments were decreases. Back-on-market activity was steady at 21%, above the 18% yearly average. Year-over-year, new listings are down more than 16%, and pendings are on track for their fifth straight week of underperformance compared to last year. This shows buyers are cautious and sellers must be disciplined on pricing if they want to attract serious offers.
How is September 2025 shaping up versus last year, and what does that imply for Q4?
September is closing as a weaker month than September 2024. New listings total about 3,366 compared to 3,691 a year earlier, a shortfall of 315. Price cuts dominate, with 92% of all changes being decreases compared to 90% in August. Pending sales sit at 1,226 versus 1,840 last year, while withdrawals and expirations are at multi-year highs, removing over 17,000 properties from the market year-to-date. Active inventory is near 16,867, a 13.7% increase year-over-year, and the activity index has slipped below 20%. This suggests Q4 will be competitive: listings that are well-prepared and priced correctly will sell, but absorption remains slow, requiring sharper strategy from both sides of the table.
Why do national headlines look upbeat (e.g., pending sales up 4% for August) while Austin feels softer now?
The disconnect comes from timing. National metrics like the Freddie Mac price index and the Pending Home Sales Index are published on a lag, often reporting deals that went under contract months earlier. Austin mirrored the national story in August, with pendings up about 4.4% year-over-year. But by September, local data shows demand has cooled again. That’s why national reports say “sales are up,” while local Austin data already reflects a slowdown. In practice, this means we’re four weeks ahead of the headlines—giving our agents and clients the ability to act on the market as it is today, not as it was months ago.
Given inventory, price drops, and rates, what’s the smartest plan for sellers and buyers right now?
For sellers, the market demands precision. Nearly 60% of listings in the City of Austin have already reduced price, and more than 80% of pendings only went under contract after a price cut. The smartest approach is to price sharply from the start, keep presentation fresh, and consider relisting with new photos if your property is aging in MLS. Fourth quarter often brings a seasonal dip in new listings, so holding or relisting can work in your favor. Buyers should be proactive but patient: nearly two-thirds of the market is cutting price, and incentives are widespread in new construction. Comparing resale concessions to builder incentives is critical. At the same time, activity indexes at the zip code level now show both active and pending counts, giving buyers and agents a micro-level view of where leverage is greatest. Both sides need to stay focused on today’s realities—higher inventory, cautious demand, and mortgage rates hovering around 6.6%—to craft strategies that actually close deals.
